This morning, the British pound remains in a strong position despite the ongoing US dollar recovery. The EUR/GBP dropped yesterday to test the 0.8800 level. The GBP/USD made small gains yesterday, while the EUR/USD and other dollar pairs made losses. Today we have some crucial data in the form of earnings and inflation, with GDP data due tomorrow.
The US dollar index itself is higher again this morning, despite concerns over US debt relating to the deficit rollover. The EUR/USD is unchanged, while the AUD/USD continues to make losses.
The Swissy has weakened further as the USD/CHF continues to climb from recently lows.
The USD/JPY is set for four days of solid gains as the resurgent dollar meets an indifferent yen. Most other yen pairs are making good gains this morning with the exception of the AUD/JPY.
Today we have a slew of European data released starting at 08.00 with French flash manufacturing PMI and services PMI. At 08.30, we get the corresponding German data and European data at 09.00.
At 09.30, we have UK data with UK average earnings, claimant count change, public sector net borrowing and the unemployment rate.
UK inflation report hearings are at 14.15.
US existing home sales are at 15.00.
At 19.00, we get the release of the FOMC minutes.
Precious metals have fallen out of favour recently, with gold’s sell off gathering headlines. However, Silver has also been troubled recently and also failed to reach the same highs as gold.
This morning, the US dollar has continued to rebound, with the US dollar index rallying for the third straight session. The bulk of this move started on Friday, but dollar pairs are still struggling in the face of it.
The EUR/USD is firmly lower, as is the GBP/USD. The AUD/USD is performing well by contrast, up around 0.2%, while the NZD/USD is unchanged. This comes after the release of the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes in the early hours of this morning.
The USD/CHF is trading higher along with the USD/CAD in a mirror move of the other dollar pairs.
The yen pairs are mixed, with the USD/JPY higher thanks to the lower yen and stronger dollar. The AUD/JPY is trading higher as the top performing pair, but the EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are lagging.
Gold is slipping off the highs in the face of a resurgent dollar.
Today we have German ZEW economic sentiment at 10.00.
The AUD/USD has performed well in the short and medium term and there could be more upside from here if the dollar recovery falters.
This morning, the US dollar continues to recover after a slew of positive data on Friday. Building permits, housing starts, import prices and preliminary UoM consumer sentiment all came in above expectations. The dollar index lifted from near three year lows on Friday and is pushing higher again this morning albeit with more moderate gains.
The yen pairs are the biggest movers, as the strong dollar puts pressure on the yen, pushing the yen pairs higher. The AUD/JPY is the strongest performer, up 0.37%. The GBP/JPY is lagging however.
The EUR/GBP is on the rise again following last week’s recovery in sterling which saw two days of losses.
The dollar pairs are showing moderate losses which extend Friday sell-off. The EUR/USD is holding up relatively well, while the AUD/USD is barely unchanged. The GBP/USD is extending losses however.
Gold has continued to slip from the highs following Friday’s session.
It is a US Bank Holiday today in honour of President’s Day.
BOE governor Carney speaks at 18.45.
The EUR/GBP has fallen into a tight range since the end of last year, with the pair slipping from the 0.8900 resistance levels.
The pair is likely to wax and wane as Brexit negotiations go through various attacks and ripostes from both sides.
This morning, the US dollar index is on the slide again, threatening fresh 2018 lows as last week’s rate hike excitement subsides. Stock markets are riding to the highs again by contrast.
The biggest winner this morning is again the Japanese yen, with the USD/JPY down 2.8% on the week and over 3% on the month to date.
Yen pairs continue to struggle as a consequence, but this is now just keeping a lid on gains rather than pushing the yen pairs lower. The AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY are maintaining their downslide, but the pace of change is easing.
Dollar pairs continue to rally by contrast, with the NZD/USD out-performing and powering higher. The pair is up nearly 2.5% on the week.
The EUR/USD continues to perform well on the week, despite yesterday’s wobble which saw the EUR/GBP reverse for the first time in a while.
Meanwhile, gold is set for a fresh 2018 closing high.
Coming up today, we have UK retail sales at 09.30.
This is followed by Canadian foreign securities purchases and manufacturing sales at 13.30.
Also at this time we have US building permits and housing starts alongside import prices.
US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment is at 15.00.
The USD/CHF has followed the USD/JPY as the dollar slides and investors keep their appetite for the Swissy’s safe haven status.
With these twin trends, there is room for further downside.
This morning, the Japanese Yen has hit 15 month highs against the US dollar, sending the USD/JPY spiralling. This came despite bigger than expected US inflation data that sent Treasury yields sharply higher. The USD/JPY is now down 2.22% on the week, with the yen pairs generally nursing hefty losses on the month.
Other yen pairs are experiencing losses this morning, though with shallower declines. The AUD/JPY is still the worst performing pair on the month, but is making small gains this morning while others make losses.
The dollar index is making declines for the fourth day in a row, erasing most of last week’s gains.
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD have seen the biggest gains over the last two days, with a large rebound yesterday.
The EUR/USD has continued its rebound and is now within a good session of breaching the recent highs again. The pound is performing well this morning, but is still some way off the highs, with the EUR/GBP unchanged this morning.
Gold rallied hard yesterday, putting the recent highs in reach again.
Today, we have US PPI, Empire State Manufacturing, Philly Fed and unemployment claims. Canadian Non Farm Employment change is released at the same time.
At 14.15, we have US Capacity Utilisation rate and industrial production.
Canadian governing council member Schembri speaks at 18.30.
The USD/JPY has slumped these last few days, but there is still room for further declines.
This morning, the US dollar continues to trade on the back foot ahead of today’s US inflation data. The US dollar index is now set to fall for three straight sessions. US retail sales are set to fall by 0.2%.
This is helping the dollar pairs to rise again, led by the EUR/USD which is up 0.97% on the week. The euro’s out-performance continues to help lift the EUR/GBP as the pound lags.
The AUD/USD is performing better today, but the pair has been hit hard this month, down 2.27%. The AUD/JPY has fared worse than this though, as it trades down over 4% as the yen pairs continue to slide.
The USD/JPY itself is in free fall as the September lows are broken. This in turn is dragging other yen pairs lower. Aside from the AUD/JPY, the GBP/JPY continues to fall, challenging recent lows.
Gold has performed well these last two sessions though.
Coming up today, we have European Flash GDP at 10.00.
We get US CPI and retail sales at 13.30.
Crude oil inventories at 15.30.
The euro was hit hard by recent volatility and remains a little way off the highs. The dollar continues to struggle this week though, with the EUR/USD recover quicker than most.
The long term trend remains positive for the EUR/USD, making a HIGHER trade attractive.
This morning, world markets look set to extend their recovery, with the US dollar index backing off. The dollar pairs are generally higher, led by the EUR/USD which is setting up for two straight days of gains.
The AUD/USD continues to push higher after Monday’s opening gap higher, while the NZD/USD mirrors a similar run.
The GBP/USD is higher but the pound is generally lagging other pairs, helping the EUR/GBP to rise for the third straight day.
Across yen pairs, the USD/JPY is leading a negative bias and heading for the September lows. The AUD/JPY is reversing yesterday’s gains, while the EUR/JPY holds up relatively well.
Coming up today, we have UK CPI at 09.30 and RP at the same time.
At 13.00, we have US FOMC member Mester speaking.
The USD/JPY continues to back off as the dollar rate hike excitement subsides. There could be more where this came from, making a LOWER trade attractive.
After last week’s excitement markets appear stable, but the S&P 500 still remains down by 2% year to date. The dollar has backed off the pace this morning as Donald Trump prepares massive infrastructure plans – another potential risk event for market traders.
The weak dollar is helping the dollar pairs to advance, with no significant stand-out performer so far. The GBP/USD is higher, but still lagging its peers after heavy selling on Friday. This comes after continued Brexit uncertainty and poor goods balance data.
The EUR/GBP is rising again and gapped higher this morning, almost as a proxy for the power balance in the EU – UK negotiations.
The NZD/USD is gaining interest and is one of the few pairs to be on track for two positive sessions since Friday.
The USD/CAD is also enjoying the dollar backing off, as the oil prices stabilise following the recent slump from $70 to near $60.
Yen pairs are generally lower as dollar interest declines without a corresponding surge in safe haven interest for the yen.
Today, we have MPC member Vlieghe and McCafferty speaking at 09.50 and 16.30 respectively.
RBA assistant governor Ellis speaks at 09.50.
The AUD/USD has been caught right in the middle as speculators are keen to react to the latest twists and turns of the latest market crisis.
Volatility is likely to be the biggest risk over coming days and weeks. As the AUD/USD has stabilised, there is a risk of rapid reversal this week as traders react and overreact.
This morning, the dollar index is recovering after the latest bout of volatility which saw the Dow Jones lose more than 1000 points. The dollar made small losses, with gains made this morning. Generally, currency markets have avoided the worst of stock market volatility.
The AUD/USD has continued its losing run, by contrast, the GBP/USD is set for its second straight day of gains, while the EUR/USD is keeping its head above water.
The yen pairs have seen the worst of recent volatility, with the yen in demand and driving the USD/JPY lower, while the US dollar is finding willing buyers as traders bet on higher inflation and interest rates. The USD/JPY is lifting off the lows, with the 108.50 level acting as support. The AUD/JPY is following suit, falling heavily yesterday but recovering well off the 84.50 level this morning.
The GBP/JPY has seen the shallowest falls, keeping some way above the 2018 lows, while the EUR/JPY is recovering after slipping below the lows yesterday. It has been advantage pound this morning as the EUR/JPY trades lower on the week.
Gold has continued to come off the highs, while the USD/CHF acted as a safe haven yesterday, trading lower again.
Coming up today, we have UK manufacturing production at 09.30, released alongside goods trade balance and NIESR GDP estimate.
At 13.30, we get Canadian employment change and the unemployment rate.
MPC member Cunliffe speaks at 16.45.
The Swiss Franc has emerged well from this mini crisis as traders seek out safe havens during the volatility. As such the EUR/CHF has reverse from the highs recently.
This morning, the US dollar is mixed after yesterday’s rally in line with stocks. This comes as hopes rise for a breaking of the US budget deadlock. In turn, the dollar pairs are generally mixed.
The NZD/USD is slipping lower as China and a neutral RBNZ weigh on the antipodean pairs. The AUD/USD has been hit hard this week, but is recovering this morning in line with other pairs.
The pound continues to recover well, with the GBP/USD’s gains outpacing the EUR/USD, just as yesterday’s losses were better than other dollar pairs. The EUR/GBP has dropped solidly for the last two days.
The yen pairs continue to wax and wane as the safe harbour of the yen attracts buyers one day and the resurgent dollar another. The EUR/JPY is trading higher this morning, so far undoing half of yesterday’s losses. The USD/JPY is performing better, rallying to erase most of yesterday’s losses.
Gold continues to struggle though, slipping from the highs.
RBA governor Lowe speaks at 09.00.
At 12.00, we have the UK MPC official bank rate vote, alongside the inflation report and voting patterns.
At 13.30, we have Canadian NHPI and US unemployment claims.
The AUD/USD has struggled as China continues to be hit hardest by the recent crash. With the dollar trading with positive intent, we could see further downside for the AUD/USD.