This morning, the British pound is falling further following yesterday’s comments from BOE chairman Mark Carney. A May rate hike now seems increasingly unlikely and the GBP/USD has rapidly erased seven days worth of gains in just three days. In addition, the ‘beast from the East’ storm appears to have had a greater impact on UK retail sales than many previously expected. The EUR/GBP is now set to challenge its highest levels for April as the euro holds firm in the face of general dollar selling. The GBP/JPY slightly higher this morning though in line with other yen pairs.
Strong data has helped the US dollar rally for the last four days, topped by yesterday’s better than expected Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
The pound wasn’t the only currency in the dollar’s firing lines yesterday. The AUD/USD slumped, while the NZD/USD is down another 0.5% this morning. The Kiwi is now down over 1.5% on the week.
The yen pairs are generally on the front foot this morning, making minor gains, though the damage has been done.
Coming up today, we have UK MPC member Saunders speaking at 10.30.
Buba president Weidmann speaks at 12.30.
At 13.30, we get a slew of Canadian data including CPI and retail sales.
FOMC member Williams speaks at 16.15.
The euro has held up well recently, while its close neighbours the pound and Swiss franc struggle. The trend is firmly with the latter and this could point to further upside from here.
This morning, the British pound remains under pressure, following two days of heavy selling. Pound bulls came in for a shock yesterday as UK inflation data came in well below estimates. CPI, RPI, PPI and HPI all came in below estimates, putting paid to previous expectations for an early Bank of England rate hike. The GBP/USD is now down on the week, as is the GBP/JPY, while the EUR/GBP has reversed higher.
The dollar index is flat this morning after climbing yesterday. Dollar pairs have been mixed, with the AUD/USD making gains for the last two days, while the NZD/USD has fallen flat for three days by contrast.
The euro has held firm despite the pound’s travails, with the EUR/JPY making gains yesterday.
The USD/CAD rose yesterday after the BOC opted to keep rates on hold. The Canadian dollar is generally weaker after officials provided a more mixed message than expected.
Silver surged yesterday, while gold held ground.
The yen remains range bound, with the USD/JPY making gains yesterday.
Coming up today, we have UK retail sales at 09.30.
FOMC Brainard speaks at 13.00.
At 13.30, we get the Philly Fed Manufacturing index and unemployment claims.
FOMC member Quarles speaks at 14.30.
MPC member Cunliffe speaks at 17.30.
The USD/CHF has continued to climb as the dollar regains its pace.
This morning, the US dollar has continued to recover, adding to yesterday’s gains. The gains come following strong US data yesterday, with manufacturing sales, housing starts and industrial production coming in above expectations.
The dollar pairs have been on the back foot, though are making small gains this morning. The pound in particular reversed, with the GBP/USD slipping from its 2018 highs. The EUR/GBP recovered Monday’s losses as the EUR/USD held its ground relatively.
The yen pairs are on the rise this morning as the yen gives way to the dollar in the global exchanges. The USD/JPY remains range bound, but the GBP/JPY has recovered yesterday’s losses, while the EUR/JPY builds some fresh momentum.
The USD/CHF surged yesterday, keeping the pair’s strong momentum up.
Gold has continued to pull back – as precious metals give way to the strong dollar.
Today, we have a stern test for the pound’s recent rally, starting with UK CPI, PPI and RPI at 09.30.
European final CPI is at 10.00.
Canada comes under focus at 15.00, with the BOC monetary policy report and rate statement. The BOC press conference follows at 16.15.
US crude oil inventories are at 15.30.
FOMC member Dudley speaks at 20.15, with Quarles speaking at 21.15.
The GBP/JPY has made an impressive recovery this morning, hinting at the strength of the underlying momentum. There could be further momentum today with UK inflation due at 09.30.
This morning, the British pound remains firm, with the GBP/USD climbing to its highest level since the shock of Brexit saw levels plunge. Hopes of a strong transition deal and upbeat expectations for UK average earnings and unemployment claims have helped the pound to push higher. The GBP/JPY has continued to climb, while the EUR/GBP is falling again, reaching its lowest levels since last May.
The dollar index is recovering some of yesterday’s losses, but the damage was done by heavy selling yesterday. US Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged more than expected, while Trump inspired political uncertainties continue to haunt the dollar.
The AUD/USD is weak this morning after indifferent trading yesterday, while the NZD/USD is selling off, erasing yesterday’s losses.
The yen pairs are mixed, with a negative bias on most pairs, with the AUD/JPY one of the worse performers over the last 24 hours.
This morning, we have UK average earnings, claimant count change and unemployment rate at 09.30.
At 10.00, we have German ZEW economic sentiment.
At 13.30, we have US housing starts and building permits. Canadian foreign securities purchases and manufacturing sales are released at the same time.
We have US capacity utilisation rate, FOMC member Williams speaking and industrial production at 14.15.
FOMC member Quarles speaks at 15.00, with Bostic speaking at 22.40.
This morning, the GBP/AUD is pushing higher, helped by the resurgent pound and an Aussie dollar that is struggling with the threat of China trade tariffs.
This morning, the euro remains under pressure following yesterday’s sharp sell-off. The minutes from the last ECB minute showed a complete lack of any hawkish sentiment that many hope for and expected. The EUR/USD erased all of yesterday’s gains and most of Wednesday’s advances.
Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP plunged to its lowest levels since June 2017 as the GBP/USD made gains yesterday. The pound is close to its highest levels of 2018 against the dollar. The EUR/GBP is making small gains this morning, but the damage has been done.
Other dollar pairs have been mixed as the dollar index made overall gains yesterday, with small losses this morning. The AUD/USD was poor yesterday with gains this morning, while the NZD/USD continues to advance.
The USD/CAD continues its impressive sell-off despite oil prices holding at 2018 highs. The USD/CHF has continued its mini rally however.
Coming up today, we have US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment at 15.00.
The pound is on the verge of fresh 2018 highs, but any pop higher could be short lived given the ongoing drag of Brexit negotiations.
This morning, the US dollar and Japanese yen are on the rise as Syria tensions mount. With Trump threatening military action, stock markets continue to sell-off, while currency market reaction has remain relatively muted. The dollar and yen sold off again yesterday (mainly on the back of poor US CPI), but the reality of action has spurred markets into seeking out the relative safety of these global reserve currencies.
Most dollar pairs are lower this morning, erasing yesterday’s gains. The USD/CAD is on the rise despite oil prices continuing to climb well above $70.
The yen pairs higher, but with less intent. The USD/JPY has made the biggest gains, erasing half of yesterday’s losses, while the AUD/JPY is on the back foot.
Gold and silver are on the back foot as dollar strength takes hold.
We start today, with MPC member Broadbent speaking at 07.30.
The UK BOE credit conditions survey is at 09.30.
At 12.30, we have ECB monetary policy meeting accounts.
US unemployment claims and Canadian NHPI at 13.30.
German Buba President Weidmann speaks at 17.00.
BOE governor Carney speaks at 20.00.
With the US dollar returning to form, the USD/CHF is putting a small but steady run together over the last couple of days.
This morning, the US dollar is slightly higher, but the damage from yesterday’s selling was significant.
Dollar pairs have taken advantage of weakness, making big moves as risk-on trading takes hold. The biggest movement came on the USD/CAD which plunged in the favour of the Canadian dollar as oil prices hit four highs last night.
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD are on the back foot, reversing some of yesterday’s gains. The Kiwi hit its highest levels for the month.
The EUR/USD and GBP/USD are rallying for the fourth day in a row as markets find the positive in global events and the ECB makes bullish signals.
The yen pairs are pausing with minor losses after sizeable gains yesterday.
At 09.30, we have UK manufacturing production. Goods trade balance is at the same time.
ECB President Draghi speaks at 12.00.
At 13.30, we have US CPI and core CPI.
The latest FOMC meeting minutes are released at 19.00.
The GBP/JPY is backing off slightly this morning, but there is no denying the current trend for the pair. The pound continues to find the positive in Brexit negotiations, while the yen continues to back off.
This morning, the US dollar is unchanged after another weak session on Monday. This weakness came about in large part due to the uncertainty sparked by the FBIs raids on the office of Trump’s lawyer and confidant Michael Cohen.
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD are higher again on hopes of a bullish response from China on Trump’s tariff threats. The Kiwi is higher for the third straight day.
After a strong day yesterday, the EUR/USD is suffering minor losses, with the GBP/USD unchanged despite reassuring house price data yesterday. The EUR/GBP is dropping back again after making gains yesterday.
Yen pairs have a positive bias, with the yen backing off, helping major pairs including the USD/JPY to rise. The GBP/JPY is making its third solid day of gains.
Today, we have MPC member Haldane speaking at 10.30.
Following this, we get US PPI at 13.30, released alongside Canadian building permits.
The Australian dollar has performed well in the last couple of days, despite ongoing concerns about the impact of trade tariffs in the region.
The medium and long term trend still is negative though, so it would be prudent to side with this and bet on a resumption of selling.
This morning, the US dollar is falling off again, on the back of mixed US payroll data on Friday. Average earnings held firm while jobs and unemployment disappointed. This and ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs has heaped further trouble on the dollar.
Dollar pairs are mixed this morning, as the EUR/USD recovers from an opening gap lower. The GBP/USD is unchanged however, following Friday’s sizeable gains. The EUR/GBP gapped lower at the open, with the euro trying to recover from the ongoing pressure of ECB interest rate expectations..
By contrast, the NZD/USD is travelling well, leading the dollar pairs higher along with the AUD/USD.
The yen pairs have a positive bias, with the GBP/JPY extending last week’s gains. The USD/JPY is nudging higher, though gains are limited.
We have a quiet day ahead this morning, starting with UK Halifax HPI at 08.30.
At 15.30, we get BOC business outlook survey.
The British pound continues to hold its ground well, mainly as a result of the perceived threat of Brexit induced inflation. The economy continues to hold up better than previous expectations, though long term uncertainty continues with Brexit negotiations.
With the yen remaining soft, there could be further upside from here.
This morning, the US Dollar is holding firm despite an apparent escalation of tariff threats from both sides of Pacific. Traders are more focused on the positive potential for today’s Non Farm Payrolls data.
Dollar pairs have a negative bias, with the likes of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD selling off again. The EUR/GBP is recovering well though, with the pair rising as the euro showing some relative strength.
The AUD/USD is making small gains this morning, the damage was done yesterday by the sharp sell-off. The NZD/USD is making small losses by contrast.
Yen pairs have a positive bias, as the USD/JPY rallies for the fourth day in a row. Even the pressured AUD/JPY is making gains.
Gold is slipping off the pace for the fourth day in a row.
Today’s main item of note is US payrolls data, with 188K jobs expected by analysts. Also at 13.30, we get US average earnings and the unemployment rate.
Canadian employment data is also released at 13.30.
Canadian Ivey PMI is at 15.00.
BOE governor Carney speaks at 16.15.
Fed Chair Powell speaks at 18.30.
The Aussie dollar remains under pressure despite the potential tariff war with China. In fact it is this threat that continues to put pressure on the Aussie with its close reliance on Chinese exports.