Expectations are high for a US rate hike this week, but this was largely priced in last week. So far we’re seeing a slight pull-back this week, giving dollar pairs a general boost.
The New Zealand dollar is the power currency, rallying on the confirmation Adrian Orr will be the new RBNZ governor. Seen as a seasoned campaigner, the Kiwi is rallying on expectations of stability and potentially further rate hikes. The NZD/USD is up over 1.00%
The Australian dollar is on the rise as well, rallying on a general increase in risk appetite. The AUD/USD is up 0.33%.
The USD/JPY is slipping back as money flows from the US dollar into the yen. Most yen pairs with the exception of the AUD/JPY are off this morning.
The EUR/GBP is rallying again this morning after a recovery rally on Friday. Brexit negotiations are progressing, but nothing is ever straightforward in European politics.
It’s a light day for economic date, with US JOLTS job openings, the main item of note.
The AUD/USD is performing better this morning, but the longer term trend remains negative.
Sterling is pausing this morning after soaring yesterday on hopes that today will see the close of the first phase of Brexit negotiations. Teresa May is expected to travel to Brussels to announce a solution to the Northern Ireland border problem. The EUR/GBP has dropped to its lowest levels since June this morning, will follow on buying for the GBP/JPY. The GBP/USD is slipping back however.
By contrast, the EUR/USD is dropping for the fourth day in a row.
The AUD/USD is unchanged after dropping for the last two days.
The USD/JPY is extending its mini bull run, with most other yen pairs following suit.
Gold is nudging higher after heavy selling yesterday.
At 09.30, we get UK manufacturing production released alongside goods trade balance.
At 13.30, we get US Non Farm Payrolls which are expected to increase by 198,000. At the same time, we have average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate.
At 15.00, we get preliminary UoM consumer sentiment.
The pound had a strong day yesterday and it just underlines how sensitive the pound is to Brexit twists and turns. The general trend has been positive though which contrasts with the Australian dollar which has been struggling of late.
As such the GBP/AUD has risen steadily since the beginning of September and could climb further.
This morning, the US dollar is firmly in control on expectations for further rate hikes and confidence following the passing of tax legislation.
This in turn is putting pressure on dollar pairs, notably the AUD/USD which is off by 0.33%. The AUD/JPY is also extending yesterday’s losses. This comes on the back of poor trade balance data.
The NZD/USD is also weak and one of the worse performers this morning.
The Canadian dollar also remains weak following yesterday’s BOC rate statement and reversal in oil prices. The USD/CAD is pushing higher and is close to undoing last week’s slump.
The yen pairs are mostly higher, led by the USD/JPY as the US dollar dominates today’s moves.
Coming up today, we have UK Halifax HPI at 08.30.
At 13.30, we get US unemployment claims and Canadian building permits.
Canadian Ivey PMI follows at 15.00.
ECB President Draghi speaks at 16.00.
Final Japanese GDP is at 23.50.
Both gold and silver have struggled of late, but it’s silver that’s really moving fast. There is a school of thought that the rise of bitcoin has curbed speculative interest in precious metals.
Either way, there could be further downside for silver from here.
This morning, the Australian dollar is on the back foot after Aussie GDP came in below estimates this morning. The AUD/JPY is now down 0.75%, with the AUD/USD down 0.33%.
The dollar pairs generally have a positive bias as the dollar index slips back. The NZD/USD is outperforming, breaking away from the pressures on the AUD/USD.
The pound is trading higher in line with other pairs this morning, but has some way to go to recover from yesterday’s losses on the back of poor services PMI data.
The yen pairs are negative this morning, with the GBP/JPY now down for three days in a row on Brexit negotiation failures.
Coming up today, we have US ADP non-farm employment change at 13.15.
Canadian labour productivity is at 13.30.
At 15.00, we get the BOC rate statement and overnight rate.
US crude oil inventories are released at 15.30.
The AUD/JPY is slipping lower this morning as the Aussie economy shows signs of weakness.
This morning, the British pound is on the back foot on reports that a deal with the EU has been scuppered by DUP objections to the Northern Irish border proposals. The GBP/USD is down 0.34%, while the GBP/AUD rallies by nearly 1%.
The pound is also making concessions against the euro this morning, helping the EUR/GBP to rally. The EUR/USD making small losses, while the EUR/JPY follow suit.
The Australian dollar is out-performing following the release of the RBA rate statement and better than expected retail sales. The AUD/JPY is up 0.71%, with the AUD/USD up 0.51%.
The dollar index has a positive bias, while the yen pairs are mixed.
Coming up today, we have UK services PMI at 09.30.
At 13.30, we get Canadian trade balance, released alongside US data.
At 15.00, we have ISM non-manufacturing PMI.
The Australian dollar is performing well this morning, rallying for each of the last three days.
The medium term trend is still negative though and there is potential for a reversion to the prior trend.
This morning, the US dollar is on the charge as traders react to the passing of Trump’s tax bill. This comes following heavy losses on Friday on concerns over Flynn’s testimony over Trump. The dollar index is higher, forcing dollar pairs lower.
The biggest losses have been seen on the Swiss Franc, with the USD/CHF up 0.80%. This comes as traders switch out of safe haven assets.
On a similar trade, the USD/JPY is up 0.64% as traders switch out of the yen and into the dollar.
The euro is recovering after gapping lower at the open against the pound, with the EUR/GBP rallying up to Friday’s close. The EUR/USD remains lower however after gapping lower and is currently trading at the day’s lows.
The GBP/USD is sliding lower and is now close to erasing all of Thursday’s gains.
The USD/CAD is slightly higher after suffering heavy losses on Friday as the weak US dollar met a resurgent Canadian dollar.
Coming up today, we have Spanish unemployment change at 08.00.
At 09.30, we have UK Construction PMI.
US factory orders follow at 15.00.
The AUD/USD is sliding lower again, cementing the general slump in the pair seen since the start of September.
Now the tax bill has passed, we could see further downside for dollar pairs.
This morning, the euro is recovering some of the ground lost this week despite yesterday’s poor European CPI data. The EUR/USD is up 0.2%, with the EUR/JPY slightly higher and the EUR/GBP rallying for the first time in five sessions.
The pound is lagging the euro, but remains positive against the dollar and yen, with the GBP/USD extending its rally yesterday on gathering hope for a Brexit deal.
The NZD/USD continues to underperform with minor losses this morning on the back of yesterday’s heavy losses on diminished interest rate expectations. The Aussie is slightly higher by contrast, with the AUD/JPY building on yesterday’s strength. This comes despite this morning’s poor Chinese economic data.
Yen pairs are generally higher, with the USD/JPY now erasing last Friday’s losses.
The USD/CAD is slipping back as oil prices come off the boil.
Today, we have UK manufacturing PMI at 09.30.
At 13.30, we get Canadian employment change, GDP and the latest unemployment rate.
At 14.30, we get FOMC member Kaplan speaking.
US ISM Manufacturing is released at 15.00.
FOMC member Harker speaks at 15.15.
The dollar pairs are generally higher without the marked exception of the NZD/USD which is struggling again. The Kiwi is suffering on the twin factors of poor Chinese data and interest rate expectations being set back.
With the US dollar making gains on the back of tax hopes, we could see more NZD/USD downside from here.
This morning, the British pound is continuing to out-perform, with the EUR/GBP dropping for the fourth day in a row. The GBP/JPY has rocketed over the last three days and the GBP/USD has hit its highest levels since October.
The dollar pairs generally have had a positive start to the day, with the AUD/USD rallying off the lows, while the EUR/USD is on the rise though still well down on the week.
The dollar index itself is on the back foot, continuing the general bearish bias since the end of October.
The main exception is the NZD/USD which is slipping lower for the third day in a row as ANZ business confidence dropped more than expected.
The yen pairs are higher as Japanese markets retreat on pressure on technology stocks.
Today, we have European CPI flash estimate at 10.00.
At 13.30, we have Canadian current account data.
At the same time, we get US core PCE price index and personal spending.
Chicago PMI is released at 14.45.
FOMC member Quarles speaks at 17.30. FOMC member Kaplan speaks at 18.00.
The GBP/USD has had a strong run recently, and the longer term trend shows that there has been a positive bias since the beginning of March.
With a Brexit trade deal on the cards, there could be further upside from here in the medium term.
This morning, the pound remains strong after reports emerge of Brexit deal upwards of 50 million euros. The pound rallied yesterday against the euro, forcing the EUR/GBP lower yesterday and this morning. The pound is now at his highest level since the start of October.
The euro fell yesterday by contrast, but is recovering tomorrow.
The Australian dollar remains weak, as the AUD/USD continues to drip lower. The AUD/JPY is lower again this morning after rallying yesterday in line with other yen pairs.
The yen pairs are generally lower today after a positive session yesterday.
The dollar index rallied yesterday on better than expected US consumer confidence, but is pulling back this morning.
Coming up today, we have Spanish flash CPI at 08.00
At 09.30, we get UK net lending to individuals.
At 13.30, we get US preliminary UK GDP. FOMC member Dudley speaks at the same time.
At 14.00, BOE governor Carney speaks, with MPC member Ramsden speaking at 14.45.
US Fed chair Yellen testifies at 15.00, we pending home sales released at the same time.
Crude oil inventories are released at 15.30.
The AUD/USD continues to dribble lower, despite a weakening US dollar.
The long term trend remains negative and it has paid to side with this over the medium to long term.
This morning, the Kiwi is out performing, with the NZD/USD one of the top performers this morning despite the dollar index making gains.
The Aussie dollar has continued to falter though. The AUD/USD is unchanged while the AUD/JPY makes small gains.
The dollar index is slightly higher, but the dollar pairs are mixed.
The EUR/USD has continued to back off, while the GBP/USD is on the rise after briefly making an eight week high yesterday. Markets are digesting the BOE bank stress test results.
Coming up today, we have European M3 Money Supply at 09.00.
At 13.30, we gave Canadian RMPI at 13.30.
FOMC member Dudley speaks at 14.15.
US Fed Chair Designate Powell speaks at 14.45.
At 15.00, we get CB Consumer Confidence.
BOC governor Poloz speaks at 16.30.
At 20.00, we have the release of the RBNZ financial stability report.
US treasury secretary Mnuchin speaks.
The USD/JPY is on the rise this morning, the down trend remains firmly in place. Further down moves could be on the cards.