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Daily Report

April 20th, 2018: Sterling Dumped on Carney Comments

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the British pound is falling further following yesterday’s comments from BOE chairman Mark Carney. A May rate hike now seems increasingly unlikely and the GBP/USD has rapidly erased seven days worth of gains in just three days. In addition, the ‘beast from the East’ storm appears to have had a greater impact on UK retail sales than many previously expected. The EUR/GBP is now set to challenge its highest levels for April as the euro holds firm in the face of general dollar selling. The GBP/JPY slightly higher this morning though in line with other yen pairs.

Strong data has helped the US dollar rally for the last four days, topped by yesterday’s better than expected Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

The pound wasn’t the only currency in the dollar’s firing lines yesterday. The AUD/USD slumped, while the NZD/USD is down another 0.5% this morning. The Kiwi is now down over 1.5% on the week.

The yen pairs are generally on the front foot this morning, making minor gains, though the damage has been done.

Coming up today

Coming up today, we have UK MPC member Saunders speaking at 10.30.

Buba president Weidmann speaks at 12.30.

At 13.30, we get a slew of Canadian data including CPI and retail sales.

FOMC member Williams speaks at 16.15.

Trade Idea

The euro has held up well recently, while its close neighbours the pound and Swiss franc struggle. The trend is firmly with the latter and this could point to further upside from here.

April 20th, 2018: Sterling Dumped on Carney Comments

A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the EUR/CHF will close above 1.2050 in 14 days for a potential return of 153%.

April 20th, 2018: Sterling Dumped on Carney Comments

April 19th, 2018: Pound Rocked By Inflation Miss

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the British pound remains under pressure, following two days of heavy selling. Pound bulls came in for a shock yesterday as UK inflation data came in well below estimates. CPI, RPI, PPI and HPI all came in below estimates, putting paid to previous expectations for an early Bank of England rate hike. The GBP/USD is now down on the week, as is the GBP/JPY, while the EUR/GBP has reversed higher.

The dollar index is flat this morning after climbing yesterday. Dollar pairs have been mixed, with the AUD/USD making gains for the last two days, while the NZD/USD has fallen flat for three days by contrast.

The euro has held firm despite the pound’s travails, with the EUR/JPY making gains yesterday.

The USD/CAD rose yesterday after the BOC opted to keep rates on hold. The Canadian dollar is generally weaker after officials provided a more mixed message than expected.

Silver surged yesterday, while gold held ground.

The yen remains range bound, with the USD/JPY making gains yesterday.

Coming up today

Coming up today, we have UK retail sales at 09.30.

FOMC Brainard speaks at 13.00.

At 13.30, we get the Philly Fed Manufacturing index and unemployment claims.

FOMC member Quarles speaks at 14.30.

MPC member Cunliffe speaks at 17.30.

Trade Idea

The USD/CHF has continued to climb as the dollar regains its pace.

April 19th, 2018: Pound Rocked By Inflation Miss

There is further upside potential from here and a good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the USD/CHF will close above 0.9700 in 14 days for a potential return of 121%.

April 19th, 2018: Pound Rocked By Inflation Miss

April 18th, 2018: Dollar Recovers on Strong Data

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the US dollar has continued to recover, adding to yesterday’s gains. The gains come following strong US data yesterday, with manufacturing sales, housing starts and industrial production coming in above expectations.

The dollar pairs have been on the back foot, though are making small gains this morning. The pound in particular reversed, with the GBP/USD slipping from its 2018 highs. The EUR/GBP recovered Monday’s losses as the EUR/USD held its ground relatively.

The yen pairs are on the rise this morning as the yen gives way to the dollar in the global exchanges. The USD/JPY remains range bound, but the GBP/JPY has recovered yesterday’s losses, while the EUR/JPY builds some fresh momentum.

The USD/CHF surged yesterday, keeping the pair’s strong momentum up.

Gold has continued to pull back – as precious metals give way to the strong dollar.

Coming up today

Today, we have a stern test for the pound’s recent rally, starting with UK CPI, PPI and RPI at 09.30.

European final CPI is at 10.00.

Canada comes under focus at 15.00, with the BOC monetary policy report and rate statement. The BOC press conference follows at 16.15.

US crude oil inventories are at 15.30.

FOMC member Dudley speaks at 20.15, with Quarles speaking at 21.15.

Trade Idea

The GBP/JPY has made an impressive recovery this morning, hinting at the strength of the underlying momentum. There could be further momentum today with UK inflation due at 09.30.

April 18th, 2018: Dollar Recovers on Strong Data

A good way to play this is a ONE TOUCH trade predicting that the GBP/JPY will touch 156.00 or higher at some point in the next 14 days for a potential return of 120%.

April 18th, 2018: Dollar Recovers on Strong Data

April 17th, 2018: Pound Hits Highest Level Since Brexit

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the British pound remains firm, with the GBP/USD climbing to its highest level since the shock of Brexit saw levels plunge. Hopes of a strong transition deal and upbeat expectations for UK average earnings and unemployment claims have helped the pound to push higher. The GBP/JPY has continued to climb, while the EUR/GBP is falling again, reaching its lowest levels since last May.

The dollar index is recovering some of yesterday’s losses, but the damage was done by heavy selling yesterday. US Empire State Manufacturing Index plunged more than expected, while Trump inspired political uncertainties continue to haunt the dollar.

The AUD/USD is weak this morning after indifferent trading yesterday, while the NZD/USD is selling off, erasing yesterday’s losses.

The yen pairs are mixed, with a negative bias on most pairs, with the AUD/JPY one of the worse performers over the last 24 hours.

Coming up today

This morning, we have UK average earnings, claimant count change and unemployment rate at 09.30.

At 10.00, we have German ZEW economic sentiment.

At 13.30, we have US housing starts and building permits. Canadian foreign securities purchases and manufacturing sales are released at the same time.

We have US capacity utilisation rate, FOMC member Williams speaking and industrial production at 14.15.

FOMC member Quarles speaks at 15.00, with Bostic speaking at 22.40.

Trade Idea

This morning, the GBP/AUD is pushing higher, helped by the resurgent pound and an Aussie dollar that is struggling with the threat of China trade tariffs.

April 17th, 2018: Pound Hits Highest Level Since Brexit

A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that GBP/AUD will close above 1.8600 in 14 days for a potential return of 178%.

April 17th, 2018: Pound Hits Highest Level Since Brexit

April 13th, 2018: Euro Slumps on ECB Minutes

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the euro remains under pressure following yesterday’s sharp sell-off. The minutes from the last ECB minute showed a complete lack of any hawkish sentiment that many hope for and expected. The EUR/USD erased all of yesterday’s gains and most of Wednesday’s advances.

Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP plunged to its lowest levels since June 2017 as the GBP/USD made gains yesterday. The pound is close to its highest levels of 2018 against the dollar. The EUR/GBP is making small gains this morning, but the damage has been done.

Other dollar pairs have been mixed as the dollar index made overall gains yesterday, with small losses this morning. The AUD/USD was poor yesterday with gains this morning, while the NZD/USD continues to advance.

The USD/CAD continues its impressive sell-off despite oil prices holding at 2018 highs. The USD/CHF has continued its mini rally however.

Coming up today

Coming up today, we have US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment at 15.00.

Trade Idea

The pound is on the verge of fresh 2018 highs, but any pop higher could be short lived given the ongoing drag of Brexit negotiations.

April 13th, 2018: Euro Slumps on ECB Minutes

A good way to play this is a ONE TOUCH trade predicting that the GBP/USD will touch 1.4400 within 14 days for a potential return of 119%.

April 13th, 2018: Euro Slumps on ECB Minutes

April 12th, 2018: Dollar Climbs On Syria Tensions

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the US dollar and Japanese yen are on the rise as Syria tensions mount. With Trump threatening military action, stock markets continue to sell-off, while currency market reaction has remain relatively muted. The dollar and yen sold off again yesterday (mainly on the back of poor US CPI), but the reality of action has spurred markets into seeking out the relative safety of these global reserve currencies.

Most dollar pairs are lower this morning, erasing yesterday’s gains. The USD/CAD is on the rise despite oil prices continuing to climb well above $70.

The yen pairs higher, but with less intent. The USD/JPY has made the biggest gains, erasing half of yesterday’s losses, while the AUD/JPY is on the back foot.

Gold and silver are on the back foot as dollar strength takes hold.

Coming up today

We start today, with MPC member Broadbent speaking at 07.30.

The UK BOE credit conditions survey is at 09.30.

At 12.30, we have ECB monetary policy meeting accounts.

US unemployment claims and Canadian NHPI at 13.30.

German Buba President Weidmann speaks at 17.00.

BOE governor Carney speaks at 20.00.

Trade Idea

With the US dollar returning to form, the USD/CHF is putting a small but steady run together over the last couple of days.

April 12th, 2018: Dollar Climbs On Syria Tensions

It could pay to bet on further upside from here and a good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the USD/CHF will close above 0.9650 in 14 days for a potential return of 205%.

April 12th, 2018: Dollar Climbs On Syria Tensions

April 11th, 2018: Weak Dollar Helps Oil Price Hit 4 Year High

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the US dollar is slightly higher, but the damage from yesterday’s selling was significant.

Dollar pairs have taken advantage of weakness, making big moves as risk-on trading takes hold. The biggest movement came on the USD/CAD which plunged in the favour of the Canadian dollar as oil prices hit four highs last night.

The AUD/USD and NZD/USD are on the back foot, reversing some of yesterday’s gains. The Kiwi hit its highest levels for the month.

The EUR/USD and GBP/USD are rallying for the fourth day in a row as markets find the positive in global events and the ECB makes bullish signals.

The yen pairs are pausing with minor losses after sizeable gains yesterday.

Coming up today

At 09.30, we have UK manufacturing production. Goods trade balance is at the same time.

ECB President Draghi speaks at 12.00.

At 13.30, we have US CPI and core CPI.

The latest FOMC meeting minutes are released at 19.00.

Trade Idea

The GBP/JPY is backing off slightly this morning, but there is no denying the current trend for the pair. The pound continues to find the positive in Brexit negotiations, while the yen continues to back off.

April 11th, 2018: Weak Dollar Helps Oil Price Hit 4 Year High

A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the GBP/JPY will close above 153.00 in 14 days for a potential return of 151%.

April 11th, 2018: Weak Dollar Helps Oil Price Hit 4 Year High

April 10th, 2018: Dollar Hit By Trump Lawyer Raids

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the US dollar is unchanged after another weak session on Monday. This weakness came about in large part due to the uncertainty sparked by the FBIs raids on the office of Trump’s lawyer and confidant Michael Cohen.

The AUD/USD and NZD/USD are higher again on hopes of a bullish response from China on Trump’s tariff threats. The Kiwi is higher for the third straight day.

After a strong day yesterday, the EUR/USD is suffering minor losses, with the GBP/USD unchanged despite reassuring house price data yesterday. The EUR/GBP is dropping back again after making gains yesterday.

Yen pairs have a positive bias, with the yen backing off, helping major pairs including the USD/JPY to rise. The GBP/JPY is making its third solid day of gains.

Coming up today

Today, we have MPC member Haldane speaking at 10.30.

Following this, we get US PPI at 13.30, released alongside Canadian building permits.

Trade Idea

The Australian dollar has performed well in the last couple of days, despite ongoing concerns about the impact of trade tariffs in the region.

The medium and long term trend still is negative though, so it would be prudent to side with this and bet on a resumption of selling.

April 10th, 2018: Dollar Hit By Trump Lawyer Raids

A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the AUD/USD will close below 0.7700 in 14 days for a potential return of 141%.

April 10th, 2018: Dollar Hit By Trump Lawyer Raids

April 9th, 2018: Dollar Hit By Mixed US Payrolls

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the US dollar is falling off again, on the back of mixed US payroll data on Friday. Average earnings held firm while jobs and unemployment disappointed. This and ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade tariffs has heaped further trouble on the dollar.

Dollar pairs are mixed this morning, as the EUR/USD recovers from an opening gap lower. The GBP/USD is unchanged however, following Friday’s sizeable gains. The EUR/GBP gapped lower at the open, with the euro trying to recover from the ongoing pressure of ECB interest rate expectations..

By contrast, the NZD/USD is travelling well, leading the dollar pairs higher along with the AUD/USD.

The yen pairs have a positive bias, with the GBP/JPY extending last week’s gains. The USD/JPY is nudging higher, though gains are limited.

Coming up today

We have a quiet day ahead this morning, starting with UK Halifax HPI at 08.30.

At 15.30, we get BOC business outlook survey.

Trade Idea

The British pound continues to hold its ground well, mainly as a result of the perceived threat of Brexit induced inflation. The economy continues to hold up better than previous expectations, though long term uncertainty continues with Brexit negotiations.

With the yen remaining soft, there could be further upside from here.

April 9th, 2018: Dollar Hit By Mixed US Payrolls

A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the GBP/JPY will close above 152.00 in 14 days for a potential return of 157%.

April 9th, 2018: Dollar Hit By Mixed US Payrolls

April 6th, 2018: Dollar Holds Firm Despite Tariff Escalations

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the US Dollar is holding firm despite an apparent escalation of tariff threats from both sides of Pacific. Traders are more focused on the positive potential for today’s Non Farm Payrolls data.

Dollar pairs have a negative bias, with the likes of the GBP/USD and EUR/USD selling off again. The EUR/GBP is recovering well though, with the pair rising as the euro showing some relative strength.

The AUD/USD is making small gains this morning, the damage was done yesterday by the sharp sell-off. The NZD/USD is making small losses by contrast.

Yen pairs have a positive bias, as the USD/JPY rallies for the fourth day in a row. Even the pressured AUD/JPY is making gains.

Gold is slipping off the pace for the fourth day in a row.

Coming up today

Today’s main item of note is US payrolls data, with 188K jobs expected by analysts. Also at 13.30, we get US average earnings and the unemployment rate.

Canadian employment data is also released at 13.30.

Canadian Ivey PMI is at 15.00.

BOE governor Carney speaks at 16.15.

Fed Chair Powell speaks at 18.30.

Trade Idea

The Aussie dollar remains under pressure despite the potential tariff war with China. In fact it is this threat that continues to put pressure on the Aussie with its close reliance on Chinese exports.

April 6th, 2018: Dollar Holds Firm Despite Tariff Escalations

A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the AUD/USD will close below 0.7650 in 14 days for a potential return of 130%.

April 6th, 2018: Dollar Holds Firm Despite Tariff Escalations