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Daily Report

October 20th, 2017: Markets Turn on New Zealand Leader

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the New Zealand dollar remains on the back foot after heavy selling yesterday. Markets took an instant dislike to the nation’s new Labour leader, with the NZD/USD now down 2.55% on the week.

The yen continues to retreat ahead of the weekend’s Japanese elections, with the USD/JPY set to challenge the October highs, while other yen pairs enjoy gains.

Dollar pairs are generally on the back foot, but it’s the pound where the more intense selling can be seen. The GBP/USD has dropped for four of the last five sessions, while the EUR/GBP jumped higher yesterday.

The US dollar index is enjoying solid gains so far today, following yesterday’s better than expected unemployment claims and Philly Fed manufacturing index.

Coming up today

At 09.30 today, we have UK public sector net borrowing.

This is followed by Canadian CPI and retail sales at 13.30.

US existing home sales at 15.00.

Trade Idea

The euro is enjoying out performing its peers at the moment on hopes for Macron’s regional reforms. Meanwhile the yen continues to weaken as we head to the weekend’s elections.

Even with a return of Abe, there could enough negativity with this weekend’s Japanese elections that could spark further upside for the EUR/JPY.

October 20th, 2017: Markets Turn on New Zealand Leader

A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the EUR/JPY will close above 134.50 in 14 days for a potential return of 132.60%

October 20th, 2017: Markets Turn on New Zealand Leader

October 19th, 2017: Yen Hit By Election Jitters

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the Japanese yen remains on the back foot after heavy selling yesterday. Investors are nervous ahead of the weekend’s elections. Following recent shock populist results, investors are steeling themselves for an outside shock. The USD/JPY remains in an elevated position, with the AUD/JPY pushing higher. The latter is pushing higher after better than expected employment data this morning.

The dollar index itself has barely moved, showcasing how this morning’s moves are entirely being driven by the yen.

Dollar pairs are mixed, with the EUR/USD and AUD/USD nudging higher, while the GBP/USD remains flat and the NZD/USD suffers heavy losses.

Gold is also selling off for the fourth day in a row.

Coming up today

Coming up today, we have UK retail sales at 09.30.

This is followed by US unemployment claims at 13.30, with Philly Fed Manufacturing at the same time.

Trade Idea

This morning, the AUD/JPY remains in a bullish position, aided by strong domestic and Chinese data. The long term trend remains in play, aided by the continued yen weakness.

October 19th, 2017: Yen Hit By Election Jitters

A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the AUD/JPY will close above 89.50 in 14 days for a potential return of 168%.

October 19th, 2017: Yen Hit By Election Jitters

October 18th, 2017: UK Inflations Slows

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the pound is on the back foot after inflation data came in below expectations yesterday. CPI held firm but other metrics including RPI, HPI and PPI rose less than expected.

The US dollar has continued to make gains, putting pressure on the dollar pairs, especially the EUR/USD which is down for the fifth straight day.

The NZD/USD is one of the biggest sellers, as the AUD/USD also continues to edge lower.

The yen pairs are mixed, with the USD/JPY making gains but other pairs such as the GBP/JPY on the back foot.

Gold is also off for the third day in a row.

Coming up today

ECB President Draghi speaks at 09.10

At 09.30, we have UK average earnings, released alongside claimant count change and the unemployment rate.

FOMC members Dudley and Kaplan speak at 13.00.

At 13.30, we get US building permits, housing starts and Canadian manufacturing sales.

US crude oil inventories are at 15.30.

Trade Idea

The British pound is slipping lower again despite recent warnings around inflation.

The GBP/USD looks to be on the turn and could be worth a downside bet.

October 18th, 2017: UK Inflations Slows

A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the GBP/USD will close below 1.3125 in 14 days for a potential return of 143%.

October 18th, 2017: UK Inflations Slows

October 17th, 2017: Pound Steady Ahead of Inflation Data

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the pound is steady ahead of today’s inflation data where CPI and RPI are expected to rise. The EUR/GBP is slipping lower again.

The US dollar is on the rise, pushing dollar pairs generally lower. The EUR/USD is down, as is the NZD/USD. The GBP/USD is unchanged, while the AUD/USD is actually making gains.

The yen pairs are following suit, with the EUR/JPY making losses while most other pairs are unchanged.

Gold is extending yesterday’s reversal as precious metals stumble despite oil prices spiking yesterday.

Coming up today

The main item this morning is UK inflation, with CPI, RPI and PPI at 09.30.

At 10.00, we have German ZEW economic sentiment.

At 10.15, we get MPC member Tenreyo speaking.

European final CPI is released at 11.00.

BOE Governor Carney speaks at 11.15.

We then get US import prices at 13.30.

US Capacity utilisation and industrial production are at 14.15.

Trade Idea

The NZD/USD is struggling this morning, despite inflation coming in slightly ahead of expectations.

October 17th, 2017: Pound Steady Ahead of Inflation Data

There is room below for further downside and a good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the NZD/USD will close below 0.7150 in 14 days for a potential return of 110%.

October 17th, 2017: Pound Steady Ahead of Inflation Data

October 16th, 2017: Euro Softer on Austria’s Right Turn

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the euro is trading lower after Austria opted to elect the world’s youngest leader at 31, with the far right freedom party scoring its best results in two year. The EUR/GBP is trading lower again, while EUR/USD slips for the third day in a row.

Dollar pairs are on the back foot generally with the exception of the NZD/USD which gapped higher this morning. The pound is holding its own though ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data.

The dollar index is nudging higher as the dollar recovery continues.

The USD/JPY is unchanged so far, with the USD/JPY gapping higher this morning.

Gold is pausing a potentially on the back foot for the first time in seven session.

Coming up today

At 13.30 today, we get Canadian foreign securities purchases, alongside US Empire State Manufacturing Index at 13.30.

At 15.30, we get the BOC business outlook survey.

Trade Idea

The AUD/USD shot high last week, but this was against the medium term trend.

October 16th, 2017: Euro Softer on Austria’s Right Turn

This morning’s reversal could gather strength and a good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the AUD/USD will close below 0.7825 in 14 days

October 16th, 2017: Euro Softer on Austria’s Right Turn

October 13th, 2017: Pound Jumps on Brexit Transition Hopes

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the British pound remains positive after receiving a boost yesterday. Despite the usual negotiation noises from both sides, there appear to be genuine hopes as the EU appear to be offering the UK a two year transition deal. The GBP/USD ended higher, with the EUR/GBP slumping.

The dollar pairs generally had a good day yesterday and this morning as the US dollar index slips lower for two straight days.

While the pound made gains, the euro reversed, with the EUR/USD dropping around the speech from ECB President Draghi.

Elsewhere, the Aussie and New Zealand dollar have continued their winning runs.

The yen pairs have a negative bias, mainly driven by the weakening US dollar.

Coming up today

Today, we have US CPI and retail sales at 13.30.

At 15.00, we get US preliminary UoM consumer sentiment.

FOMC member Evans speaks at 15.25, with Kaplan speaking at 16.30.

Trade Idea

Brexit appears to be the key driver for the pound at the moment and while this is likely to wax and wane, it’s clear that traders have hooked on to the positive potential of a transition deal.

Pessimism is built into the pound right now, so any positive surprises could force even more of an upside move on the GBP/USD.

October 13th, 2017: Pound Jumps on Brexit Transition Hopes

A good way to play this is a HIGHER trade predicting that the GBP/USD will close above 1.3350 in 14 days for a potential return of 131.5%.

October 13th, 2017: Pound Jumps on Brexit Transition Hopes

October 12th, 2017: Dollar Weakens as Fed Errs

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the US dollar is continuing to sell off after last night’s Fed minutes revealed a divided Fed who are unsure on how to deal with persistently low inflation. The US dollar index dropped yesterday and is showing renewed weakness this morning.

Dollar pairs have consequently enjoyed gains, led by the AUD/USD and NZD/USD.

The pound has enjoyed a good week, rallying for five days in a row as Theresa May lives to fight another week.

The yen pairs are mixed, with the USD/JPY dropping lower, but the AUD/JPY making gains.

Gold is enjoying the current dollar impasse though, rising for the sixth straight day.

Coming up today

This morning, we get the UK BOE credit conditions survey at 09.30.

At 13.30, we get US PPI, unemployment claims and Core PPI.

ECB President Draghi speaks at 15.30, alongside FOMC members Brainard and Powell.

US crude oil inventories are released at 16.00.

Trade Idea

Gold has waxed and waned in recent months, but the general trend remains higher. With the US dollar showing signs of weakness and investors looking for potential inflation and risk hedges, gold could well be in demand over coming months.

October 12th, 2017: Dollar Weakens as Fed Errs

A HIGHER trade on gold predicting that it will close above $1325 in 90 days could return 171% if successful.

October 12th, 2017: Dollar Weakens as Fed Errs

October 11th, 2017: Dollar Retreats as Catalonia Pulls Back

Morning Report: 07.00 London

Most dollar pairs enjoyed strong gains, with the EUR/USD making a strong advance. This morning, dollar pairs are decidedly mixed, with the GBP/USD and AUD/USD making small losses, while the EUR/USD is unchanged. The euro’s gains came as Catalonia stopped short of formally requesting independence, opting instead to take a middle ground which keeps dialogue open.

The EUR/GBP is rising again this morning as it did yesterday, as European risk remains within acceptable limits.

The yen pairs are mixed, with the EUR/JPY on the rise, but the GBP/JPY slipping back.

Gold is slipping back this morning after four days of consecutive gains.

Coming up today

Today, we have JOLTS job openings are 15.00.

FOMC meeting minutes are released at 19.00.

Trade Idea

The IMF upgraded global growth forecasts yesterday, but made an unfortunate exception of the UK. The pound has recovered these last few days, but the bear trend remains firmly in place.

October 11th, 2017: Dollar Retreats as Catalonia Pulls Back

A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the GBP/USD will close below 1.3100 in 21 days for a potential return of 176%.

October 11th, 2017: Dollar Retreats as Catalonia Pulls Back

October 10th, 2017: Dollar Backs Off

Morning Report: 07.00 London

For the first time in a number of sessions, the US dollar has significantly backed off this morning. The US dollar index is on the back foot, helping the main dollar pairs to rise.

The AUD/USD is leading the charge, up 0.41%, with the NZD/USD higher but lagging.

The euro doesn’t appear to be too encumbered by the Catalonia independence unrest, with the EUR/USD making solid gains and the EUR/GBP also rising.

The pound is higher with the GBP/USD up for the third day in a row, this comes as Theresa May survives her latest challenge. Some are now commenting that May could we be the best option on acceptance that Tory/EU divisions run deep.

Yen pairs are mixed as the USD/JPY remains in a tight trading range.

Coming up today

Today, we have UK manufacturing production at 09.30, released alongside goods trade balance.

At 13.30, we get Canadian building permits.

FOMC member Kashkari speaks at 15.00.

Trade Idea

The NZD/USD remains weak, experiencing the smallest rebound of the dollar pairs. If the US dollar is to rebound this week, it could be the NZD/USD where we see the biggest falls.

October 10th, 2017: Dollar Backs Off

A good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the NZD/USD closes below 0.7000 in 14 days for a potential return of 195%.

October 10th, 2017: Dollar Backs Off

October 9th, 2017: Pound Recovers on Data Error

Morning Report: 07.00 London

This morning, the British pound is recovering after it emerged that the ONS released a data error which underplayed wage growth inflation. Coupled with this, Theresa May appears to have staved off a leadership challenge for now. The GBP/USD is trading higher again, while the EUR/GBP has slipped lower.

It was a volatile session for the US dollar on Friday as it rose significantly then fell back. US Non Farm Payrolls fell short, but this was expected in part due to Hurricane Irma. The dollar is unchanged this morning.

The yen pairs are mixed, with gains for the USD/JPY and GBP/JPY but losses for the AUD/JPY.

The AUD/USD is resuming its down trend, while the NZD/USD rallies.

Gold has rebounded quite sharply this morning as investors bet on higher global inflation.

Coming up today

It is a quiet day on the economic news front, with a Japanese, Canadian and US public holiday.

Trade Idea

The EUR/GBP is trading lower this morning as UK inflation expectations nudge up again, while Theresa May’s leadership position solidifies somewhat.

October 9th, 2017: Pound Recovers on Data Error

We could see further downside from here and a good way to play this is a LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/GBP will close below 0.8900 in 14 days for a potential return of 132%.

October 9th, 2017: Pound Recovers on Data Error