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Daily Report

Euro Lags24 October 2018 by Dave Evans

Morning Report: 07.00 London

The dollar index is mixed after stepping off the gas yesterday. Despite this, the euro continues to lag on soft inflation and Italian concerns.

The EUR/GBP is dipping again after failing to break the 0.8850 resistance line. The EUR/CHF continues to stumble at the highs, with the pair trading within a range between 1.1500 or 1.1400 throughout much of October. The 1.1450 support line is holding for now on the EUR/USD, but the pressure is mounting. The EUR/JPY is on the rise along with other yen pairs, but with smaller advances.

By contrast, the AUD/USD is stable, bouncing off the 0.7050 level as the October lows hold for now. The GBP/USD is also making moderate gains as the 1.2950 level holds, though Monday’s losses still have not been troubled.

The USD/CHF remains at the highs, though has stalled in its assault on the parity line. Meanwhile, the USD/CAD continues to peel back from the 1.3100 level as the US dollar weakens.

The yen is generally on the back foot, with the USD/JPY making back half of yesterday’s losses. Other yen pairs are following a similar pattern.

Coming up today

Today, we have a slew of European manufacturing and services PMI items, starting at 08.15 with French data, German data at 08.30 and European wide manufacturing at 09.00.

At 15.00, we have the BOC monetary policy report and rate statement. Rates are expected to increase by 0.25%. The press conference follows at 16.15.

At 15.30, we have US crude oil inventories.

FOMC member Bostic speaks at 18.00, with Mester speaking at 18.10.

Trade Idea

The USD/CAD is stalling at the highs ahead of today’s BOC meeting. This comes as oil prices slip back to $76.00. Still, these levels are more than double the 2016 lows, making Canadian tar sand oil extraction work economically.

October 24th 2018: Euro Lags

A good way to play this is to bet on further rate hikes from the BOC. A LOWER trade predicting that the USD/CAD will close below 1.3000 in 14 days time for a potential return of 157%.

October 24th 2018: Euro Lags