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Euro Rebounds on Migrant Deal29 June 2018 by Dave Evans

Morning Report: 07.00 London

The euro is charging higher as EU leaders reach a deal on migration that avoided conflict with Italy’s hardline PM. The EUR/USD is up 0.72% this morning, with the EUR/JPY up by 0.89%.

This comes as the US dollar index backs off from the highs in the face of euro strength. This comes amid negative pressure on the dollar from last night’s poor US GDP and unemployment claims data.

The euro is outpacing the pound which itself is making gains, but at a much slower pace. The GBP/USD has at least reversed yesterday’s losses. The EUR/GBP is up 0.43% which builds on yesterday’s gains and sends the pair towards a test of the top range of 0.8900.

The AUD/USD continues to recover well, building on yesterday’s small gains to test the 0.7400 from below.

The USD/CHF is reversing a good portion of this week’s gains, as the pair fails to push through the 1.0000 level. The USD/CAD is beating a similar path, slipping back towards 1.3200.

Even gold is reversing higher after weeks of losses.

The USD/JPY is climbing higher for the fourth day in a row to test the 111.00 resistance level. Most yen pairs are on the rise this morning, with the EUR/JPY pushing to its highest levels since the 15th.

Coming up today

Today we have German retail sales at 07.00.

The Swiss KOF economic barometer is at 08.00.

At 09.30, we get the UK current account data, released alongside UK final GDP and net lending to individuals.

European CPI flash estimate is at 10.00, with the second day of the EU economic summit running through the day.

Canadian GDP is at 13.30, released alongside RMPI.

US Core PCE price index is at 13.30, with personal spending at the same time.

Chicago PMI is at 14.45.

Revised US UoM consumer sentiment is at 15.00.

Canadian BOC business outlook survey is at 15.30.

Trade Idea

The euro is performing well this morning, but the medium term trend for the EUR/USD still has a negative bias.

This morning’s increase could therefore be a selling rather than a buying opportunity.

June 29th, 2018: Euro Rebounds on Migrant Deal

A good way to play this will be a LOWER trade predicting that the EUR/USD will close below 1.1600 in 14 days for a potential return of 153%.

June 29th, 2018: Euro Rebounds on Migrant Deal